Publications - Monographs and Scientific Edited Books

The Covid pandemic and two years later the military operation in Ukraine revealed the instability of international relations and confirmed the importance of energy resources and energy security as key factors in geopolitical changes, which are currently changing the foundations for other possible future directions in the development of the world economy. Within the monograph, several cross-cutting themes can be identified in this context, such as: description of the dynamics of the recovery of the global economy and its decisive elements from the pandemic shock; analysis of the causes and possible consequences of the extraordinary acceleration of the rate of inflation over the past year; the effects of the escalation of geopolitical tensions and the analysis of the economic development in individual economies.

In the first chapter, we systematically analyze the current geopolitical maneuvering in the context of determining possible future trajectories in the development of the global economy. The analysis is mainly focused on the development in the post-Soviet area, and also on the rise of the economic significance of the so-called developing economies, such as China, India, Turkey or Brazil. In the second chapter, the authors reflect on how income and property polarization prevents society from its further development, also restricted on the part of the changing natural environment, which brings with it a further deepening of income and property inequalities, for example in the direction of urban-rural splitting of social and economic structures.

Current tight budgets and high indebtedness of governments, busi-nesses and households do not give much room for massive fiscal expansion, and the measures taken do not have the intensity to prevent the permeability of inflationary processes to economic structures and their negative impact on the growth of household and business costs. Higher inflation is reflected in the deepening of income and property polarization, with direct relation to the increase in energy poverty. In addition, higher inflation will also be reflected within social polarization in access to health services, to education and also in the area of housing. It can therefore be expected that the prolongation of inflationary pressures will lead to further indebtedness of businesses and households and the number of people who will find themselves in the poverty trap will rise.

In the third chapter, attention is paid to the great expansion of digital payments in recent years, which is connected with the implementation of digital currencies by central banks. The authors emphasize that financial inclusion in the form of equal opportunities to access affordable and flexible financial services is very important in this process. In this regard, insufficient financial inclusion can deepen income and property polarization at the level of individuals and families. It can also affect the lower competitiveness of small and medium-sized companies. The key question that connects monetary digitization with the ongoing growth of inflation is what impact the introduction of digital currency will have on the performance of monetary policy and price stability derived from it. Given the differences in socio-economic development in individual economies, we can conclude that there is currently no universal model on the way to the adoption of digital currency, while the key will be how central banks can eliminate possible risks associated with financial intermediation. There is a related question of the stability of the international monetary system and its regulation, which is important for the effective functioning of the international financial system.

In the fourth chapter, the authors analyze global trade, which recorded a remarkable upsurge in 2021, when it reached pre-pandemic levels both in terms of trade in goods and services. However, this development was not uniform in individual regions of the world economy. The positive trend was largely the result of rising commodity prices, the easing of pandemic restrictions and the revival of demand thanks to economic stimulus packages. Stronger demand than supply supported the increase in inflationary pressures, to which the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict significantly contributed in 2022, with implications for the increases in commodity prices on world markets, especially energy prices. In addition, the prices of other commodities, of which the Russian Federation and Ukraine are significant exporters, including the prices of cereals, are also experiencing turbulent evolution. The conflict in Ukraine has led to an extreme rise in natural gas prices in Europe, which has a significant negative impact on companies and the population, who will have to deal with higher insolvency, loss of competitiveness and growing poverty.

The fifth chapter is focused on regulatory measures and initiatives within the EU recovery plan that were adopted to address the economic and social effects of the pandemic crisis and support of economic growth. For the future of Europe, it will be necessary to take into account various trade-offs between given goals and optimal economic outcomes, with particular regard to sustainability, inclusiveness and a deeper restructuring of the EU's economic and political paradigm. Challenges such as a stronger and more resilient economic base, support for competitiveness and employment are currently being joined by new challenges in the field of strengthening defense capabilities and reducing energy dependence, which will require not only large investments, but also a fundamental shift in the economic integration of the EU.

In the next chapters, we pay attention to economic development in specific economies and regions. Europe is currently forced to increase its energy self-sufficiency, reduce dependence on fossil fuels and accelerate the transition to a green economy. Even in the light of other challenges that the EU is currently facing, we can expect continued support from public finances, but in the context of the tightening of the ECB's monetary policy, the fragility of public and private finances in the most indebted member states and their impact on potential growth will persist.

Like the EU economy, the US economy is expected to grow at a slower pace than expected in 2022, primarily due to the high inflation and the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, we can conclude that the impact of rising prices and geopolitical uncertainty have a relatively limited impact on the US economy, with the US experiencing higher GDP growth than the EU. Economic growth is also lagging behind in Japan, whose economy is taking longer to recover from the demand shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic, and whose gross domestic product has not yet reached its pre-coronavirus level even at the beginning of 2022. Also due to servicing the record high public debt, the Japanese central bank BOJ leaves interest rates at zero, which is the opposite strategy to that followed by the American central bank FED and the European central bank ECB, which have started to tighten monetary policies and increasing interest rates on the market. These differences in the monetary strategies of the three most important central banks can support both internal and external economic imbalances in an environment of rising inflation and import prices. With such uncertainty affecting future development, in addition to monetary policy, the involvement of national industrial, tax and credit policies will be very important for the continuation of the economic recovery. However, we must state that in a period of great uncertainty and geopolitical transformation of multilateral relations in the world economy, it will be extremely difficult for stabilization policies to respond to inflationary expectations and a decline in the standard of living.

Much more than before, the need for the transformation of economies within the internal and external structures in which they operate is evident. From the point of view of the future development of the world economy, China is becoming the main partner for wider cooperation, as well as an economic competitor and a systemic rival. In recent years, it has been shown how important the pandemic situation in China is for the world economy and international trade. Anti-pandemic policy in China is based on much stricter countermeasures than in the USA or the EU. The confluence of pandemic waves in China and the war in Ukraine is disrupting global supply chains, driving up commodity prices and thus overall inflation.

In the case of the Russian economy, the recovery from the pandemic crisis accompanied by high inflation has been complicated by the effects of large-scale coordinated economic sanctions since the end of February 2022. The slowdown in global economic growth, adopted sanctions and restrictions imposed on exports and imports to Russia, along with introduced payment and logistical obstacles, reduced the volume of foreign trade of the Russian Federation to a record. However, the value of Russian exports itself should fall relatively little in 2022, as the reduction in its physical volume will be significantly offset by higher prices, which will ultimately support the expected achievement of a record current account surplus of the balance of payments. The new economic sanctions accelerated the transformation of international trade flows and the Rus-sian state economic strategy aimed at creating alternative supply chains and substituting imports from Western countries with domestic or foreign production from third countries. Russia is facing a change in the economic model towards a higher degree of autarky, with a potentially negative impact on the living standards of the domestic population. At the same time, 2022 and the following years will reconfigure the world economy due to anti-Russian sanctions. Because of the increase in geopolitical tensions, there is a large-scale redefinition of supplier-customer relations, which will also change the power positions of states and regions in the world economy.