Publications - Monographs and Scientific Edited Books

The globalised world economy in its present form has been deca¬des in the making. However, it is currently being restructured, both consciously and spontaneously, with ideas about its future shape varying according to real time changes in politics and economics. The global society, which was supposed to be the foundation of civilisation, is now disintegrating into several blocks. The most pronounced outlines have the group of the advanced Western countries, led by the USA, and the BRICS nations, which are promoting alternative solutions for the global economy and global society. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine shows the reality of the disintegration of the unipolar world, led by the USA, which has been dominant for the last three decades, and the competition between several ideas and visions of a possible multipolar future world order. Contemporary societies are facing a significant change not only in terms of their approach to dealing with growing global and regional tensions, but also in terms of the polarization of income and wealth. In the future, it is likely that not only economic parameters such as profit, productivity and efficiency will be decisive, but geopolitical perspectives on the development of society will increasingly come to the fore. An individual's social status will not be determined primarily by his or her work abilities, talents, and education, but will increasingly be determined by his or her empathy with the preconceptions of the elites and willingness to accept the characte-ristics of the future society. Income polarisation may thus become a reflection of solidarity with the character of society.

The situation is currently complicated by the unfavourable deve-lopment of public debt, which has deep roots in previous cycles and is not only a consequence of the slowdown in economic growth and the energy crisis in connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The accumulation of adverse trends in the world economy is exacerbating an already very difficult situation for the sustainability of public finances in many countries around the world. The ongoing process of fragmentation of international monetary-financial, trade and payment relations, including the disruption of global value chains, the deepening energy and food crises, coupled with unprecedented increases in inflation and interest rates, will have a significant negative impact on the further development of public debt. Public spending to cover losses associated with the impacts of climate change may also place a relatively heavy burden on government budgets. These negative factors will contribute to divergence in the development of individual economies, slowing down the process of real convergence. Countries influenced by a heavy public debt burden will have limited options to finance the transformation towards a digital, green and socially just economy. Constrained public spending may become the biggest obstacle to financing productive investment, undermining the foundations for long-term sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

The economic slowdown in 2022 was reflected by a reduction in the growth rate of global trade. In particular, developments in the global energy market have been very turbulent, directly linked to the war conflict in Ukraine. In addition to the escalation of the conflict itself, the military invasion of Ukraine has led to increased efforts to decarbonise the European energy sector and to stop imports of coal, oil and natural gas from the Russian Federation as quickly as possible. These efforts are having an inflationary effect on energy prices, at least in the short term. High consumer costs mean high growth in global revenues from oil and gas sales, which mainly benefit their producers. For these economies, this represents a generational opportunity to diversify their economic structures. Rising costs, on the other hand, are particularly burdensome for emerging economies, which are most affected by food, energy and fertiliser shortages as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and, unlike Europe, do not have the means to cushion the impact of these events on their populations with various subsidies.

Given the relatively high level of gas stocks, the European Union is in a relatively better position ahead of the next winter season than in 2022. However, although Europe is gradually moving away from imports from Russia, the risk regarding the further development of energy prices will remain. Price pressures from the invasion of Ukraine are translating into high core inflation, which is constraining households' purchasing power and may require further interest rate hikes by the ECB. At the same time, pressures on indebted sovereigns and public finances will increase. Many of the uncertainties affecting the future of the European economy stem from the external environment. The escalation of geopolitical tensions has affected virtually all aspects of economic activity and financing conditions, and is the latest major asymmetric shock to test the systemic preparedness of the financial system to deal with crisis situations.

The risk of the near-term economic development in Russia may be a decline in production and oil prices on world markets, which would reduce the current account surplus and weaken the federal budget revenues. The latter is stretched because of the need for higher spending on the war as well as pro-cyclical measures to stimulate the economy. In all likelihood, the budget deficit of the Russian Federation will deepen, but it is still relatively sustainable, mainly due to low public debt and remaining fiscal reserves. Private investment and output will be negatively affected in a number of sectors by limited access to foreign capital and Western technology. In the short term, higher trade costs and weaker domestic demand are reasons for lower private investment, which will be compounded in the longer term by the departure of part of the skilled labour force abroad. In particular, the manufacturing, agriculture and construction sectors are facing labour supply shortages.

The European Union and the United States have imposed sanctions on Russia, and will also sanction other states, organisations and companies that nevertheless continue to cooperate economically with Russia. The effects of the post-conflict fragmentation of the world economy remain questionable, particularly in relation to changes in existing production and supply chains. Paradoxically, however, the effect of possible shocks in the global economy on the Russian economy may be partially limited by the impact of sanctions. The invasion of Ukraine has triggered an acceleration and intensification of geopolitical processes, with the confrontation between Russia and the West (UK, EU and US) taking the form of undisguised open hostility. The war in Ukraine will continue to destabilise the region and international relations. The numerous statements by senior Western leaders of their determination to support Ukraine for as long as necessary speak of a future trajectory of escalation and the threat of a pre-emergence of direct military conflict between the US (with allies) and Russia.

As in other advanced economies, the conflict in Ukraine has contri-buted to higher energy prices for households and businesses in the US. On the other hand, however, the uncertainty over the supply of natural gas caused by sanctions against Russia has had a positive effect towards increasing demand for liquefied natural gas from third countries, and exports of this commodity from the US to EU countries increased by hundreds of percent during 2022. Along with the imposition of economic sanctions against Russia, the US trade war with the People's Republic of China has intensified, resulting in the adoption of several laws and measures to prevent the transfer of advanced technologies and know-how abroad.

China is building a modern socialist country through its own way. Its economy is energy-intensive and, given its structure and high rate of coal use, China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide. China's position in the world economy has strengthened in recent years and it is now a major trading partner for more than a hundred countries. In the context of the military conflict in Ukraine, we must note that it has strengthened its trade relations with the sanctioned Russian Federation during 2022. We can expect China to become increasingly involved in global politics. The US and EU sanctions policy is at odds with the general principle of cooperation applied by China. This may create further contradictions with implications for foreign trade relations and general prosperity in the world economy.