Publications - Monographs and Scientific Edited Books

The publications Development and Prospects of the World Economy – Possible Trajectories of a Multipolar World and Development and Prospects of the World Economy – Centers of Economic Power in a Multipolar World provide a comprehensive view of developments in the world's major regions in light of current global trends. Over the past decade, the approach to the polarization of global society has changed, with a deepening polarization in the areas of access to healthcare, education, and new technologies becoming apparent. When assessing the EU's prospects, it can be said that unless the supply of cheap raw materials and energy sources is restored, European industry will not be internationally competitive. In light of political priorities such as the Green Deal or higher defense spending, it is necessary to answer questions about the sustainability of the European social model, which is closely linked to the development of income and expenditure in the social sphere, where there is a confrontation of needs also in connection with the aging of the population. With certain limitations and modifications, however, the pattern of income polarization can be maintained in the EU if it is possible to maintain a relatively strong middle class, good pension and social policies, and standards in education and healthcare.

On an international scale, it is important for the EU to build technological competitive advantages that will bring economic dominance in international economic relations, while also building military dominance in pursuing geopolitical goals. States and responsible authorities must be able to respond to a number of phenomena related to international technological competition, in particular the brain drain, which also affects new EU Member States, including Slovakia. Western countries are currently winning the international competition for the human resources that are the cornerstone of technological progress.

Historically, developments in international monetary, payment, and financial relations have always been closely linked to the position of the strongest economies. Currently, the US and its currency, the USD, dominate this area, mainly in terms of market capitalization. However, the position of the USD in international trade is gradually declining. Although the US economy is on a very favorable development trajectory, it is important to note its large macroeconomic imbalances related to public debt and the current account deficit. At the same time, it should be emphasized that although the euro is the world's second reserve currency, the full potential of financial and fiscal union and the deepening of the single market has not yet been exploited, which could strengthen the euro's position as a reserve currency, especially against the USD. Despite the success of the Chinese economy in recent decades, the liberalization of capital account operations is necessary for the Chinese national currency to gain the status of a strong and competitive reserve currency.

The risk of a trade war between the largest economies poses a real threat to global trade and economic growth. Even without major tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, the volume of exports and imports continued to decline in Europe in 2024. Europe was the only region of the global economy to experience such a decline. In contrast, the US acted as a significant import engine in the global economy, which in 2024 was partly linked to expectations of higher tariffs on imports of goods into the US. This highlights the vulnerability of international trade and its relatively high dependence on US demand. In sharp contrast to the volatility of international trade in goods, trade in services has grown consistently and strongly, suggesting that trade in services may be more resilient to certain types of shocks, particularly those related to supply chain disruptions or higher tariffs. Escalating geopolitical tensions, disrupted supply chains, and protectionism are bringing great uncertainty to the global trade and investment landscape, highlighting a shift toward trade driven by geopolitical alignment rather than purely economic efficiency.