Publications - Monographs and Scientific Edited Books

The US is the world's largest importer and second largest exporter of goods. This makes it a driving force capable of influencing not only its own bilateral relations with other countries and regional entities, but also the very nature of international trade relations and economic growth throughout the global economy. At the same time, the US confirms its leading position in foreign investment inflows and is the most attractive destination in the world in this regard. The biggest problem facing the US economy at present is its high public debt and interest rates, which are burdening the federal budget with excessive repayments. This development has also been noted by rating agencies, which have downgraded the US credit rating. Higher tariff barriers will make it more difficult for foreign competitors to access the domestic market and will also raise the prices of imported goods, which will reduce the purchasing power of domestic consumers. The new trade and customs policy has an impact not only on the US economy as a whole, but also on individual member states of the federation, whose involvement in foreign trade varies significantly, both regionally and structurally.

EU economic growth is being slowed by greater trade barriers, a stronger euro, and weakening confidence in the predictability of the global environment. This development is partly offset by a relatively stable labor market, growth in employment and real incomes, and improving financing conditions, supported by the ECB's gradual easing of monetary policy. However, domestic factors are key to economic growth, in particular increasing the competitiveness of European companies and strengthening the EU's strategic autonomy. Technological backwardness, green transformation, and defense preparedness require significant investment, but the scope for expansionary fiscal policy is limited due to deficit spending and high debt levels in many EU member states. The European Union thus faces a fundamental challenge in reconciling fiscal responsibility with the urgent need for modernization.

The example of China shows how the threat of tariff and non-tariff barriers is putting pressure on export-oriented companies to invest more in production abroad in order to gain free access to foreign markets and greater geopolitical influence. In terms of overall investment activity and investment in fixed assets, we are seeing a gradual territorial shift in dynamics in favor of China's less economically developed regions, which is linked to a broader strategy of promoting domestic sources of economic growth. However, the high propensity to save is limiting domestic consumption growth to some extent. Growing distrust of US economic policy could bolster the yuan's position as a more important global currency, a development that is also supported by the fact that China holds the world's largest foreign exchange reserves. China pursues a sovereign policy, while continuing to emphasize cooperation. The major global players compete with each other in a competitive coexistence, while at the same time being forced to cooperate in solving global problems.

In 2024, the Russian economy continued to grow, driven mainly by domestic consumption and investment. The share of Russian exports in GDP is weakening, which is a direct consequence of the restrictions on trade imposed by sanctions. Another "victim" of the war and sanctions is the price level. The consequences of the military conflict can be seen in many sectors. After 2022, the fastest growth was seen in sectors that produce not only for the civilian sector but also for the defense industry. In the non-manufacturing sector, public administration and defense grew at a rapid pace, but service industries such as restaurants and accommodation, information and communication, and financial and insurance services grew even faster. The growth of the Russian economy was therefore not solely due to the expansion of the defense industry. Although changes in the structure of the economy do not confirm a "transition to a war economy", the same cannot be said about the state budget, which shows a clear intention to increase defense spending, even at the expense of public services.