Projects

Forecasting of Regional Development and Assessment of Effectiveness of Regional Policies Using the Structural HERMIN Model

Ing. Marek Radvanský, PhD.

Members of project
Mgr. Miroslav Štefánik, PhD., doc. Ing. Iveta Stankovičová, PhD., Ing. Marek Radvanský, PhD., Mgr. Tomáš Miklošovič, PhD., Ing. Ivan Lichner, PhD., Ing. Veronika Hvozdíková, PhD., Ing. Ján Haluška, PhD., Ing. Karol Frank, PhD.

• Basic informations
• Characteristics
• Outputs

• Duration od the project: 07/2017 - 12/2020
  ID number: APVV-16-0630

• Slovakia belongs to the EU countries with the largest regional disparities, albeit every government had listed mitigation of regional disparities amongst its priorities. National economic policy tends to underestimate specific effects of measures implemented at the regional level. Relatively limited attention is also paid to analytical support for regional decision making and forecasting. The project goal is to develop and apply state of the art quantitative tools to enhance decision making, analysing and forecasting of policy measures impact. Measures to increase efficiency of regional and cohesion policy (RP/CP) with respect to sustainable and inclusive growth will be analysed too. Project consists of 3 parts. Methodology and assumption part analyses current development and objectives of RP/CP and defines the economicpolicy instruments to achieve them. Main part of the project will focus on adjustment of the augmented structural econometric model HERMIN together with creation of a system of 8 satellite models for each region at NUTS 3 level. The HERMIN methodology approved by EC for CP evaluation and forecasting has never been applied in this form. Its application will result in significant methodological shift on an international scale. The key innovation will be, in addition to its regionalisation (NUTS 3), a more detailed view of sectoral development of labor market (NACE) with regard to education (ISCED) and occupation (ISCO). Additional benefit of the project (not yet applied in SR) will be estimation of regional prices development based on HBS panel data. Additional analysis will focus on reduction of uncertainty in ex-post regional data estimation and estimations of inter-regional flows of goods, services and labor. Final part will be devoted to evaluation of existing policies, synthesis and use of forecasting andsimulations results for policy design. We assume that the results will contribute to adjustment of actual implementation of RP/CP in Slovakia.

• 2017:

  LICHNER, Ivan - RADVANSKÝ, Marek. Direct effects of inclusive policies on Slovak economy. In Inclusive and sustainable economic. Challenges, measures and solutions : (ISEG 2017). - Brašov, 2017, p. 31. Dostupné na internete: http://unitbv.ro/iseg/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Program-ISEG-2017-V11.pdf (Vega č. 2/0135/17 : Modelovanie a analýza možností znižovania regionálnych rozdielov v SR prostredníctvom verejných politík. APVV-16-0630: Prognózovanie regionálneho vývoja SR a hodnotenie účinnosti regionálnych politík pomocou štruktúrneho makroekonomického modelu HERMIN).

  RADVANSKÝ, Marek - MIKLOŠOVIČ, Tomáš - LICHNER, Ivan. Strednodobá prognóza slovenského trhu práce do roku 2026 s dôrazom na štruktúru povolaní = Mid-term forecast of Slovak labour market up to 2026 with focus on occupational structure. In Forum Statisticum Slovacum : recenzovaný vedecký časopis / scientific peer-reviewed journal, 2017, roč. XIII, č. 2, s. 36-47. ISSN 1336-7420. Dostupné na internete: http://ssds.sk/casopis/archiv/2017/fss0217.pdf#page=38 (APVV-14-0324: Riešenie spoločenských výziev v oblasti tvorby politiky trhu práce založenej na vedeckých informáciách. APVV-16-0630: Prognózovanie regionálneho vývoja SR a hodnotenie účinnosti regionálnych politík pomocou štruktúrneho makroekonomického modelu HERMIN).