Projects

Prediction of Economic and Financial Crises in the Wake of the Recession in the European Union

Ing. Filip Ostrihoň, PhD.

Members of project
Prof. Dr. Ing. Menbere Workie Tiruneh, PhD., RNDr. Viliam Pálenik, PhD., h.doc., Ing. Filip Ostrihoň, PhD., doc. Ing. Brian König, PhD., Ing. Miroslava Jánošová, PhD., doc. Ing. Tomáš Domonkos, PhD., Ing. Štefan Domonkos, M.A.

• Basic informations
• Characteristics

• Duration of the project: 1/2018 - 12/2020
  ID number: VEGA 2/0158/18

   

• Crises and their prediction haveattracted economists, politicians and practitioners for several decades. The reason perhaps may be their costly effects on the economy and on the welfare. This project aims to forecast economic and financial crises in the wake of the recent great recession across European Union(EU)countries. The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure of the European Commission included under the umbrella of the European Semester is one of among the state-of-the art crisis signaling approaches in the World. However, it is kept very simple and allows large space for the European Commission when deciding about launching the excessive imbalance procedure, which brings further uncertainty in the system. Thus, we consider ample room for further development in crisis prediction in the EU. The results of the project should deliver a model or procedure which will be able to provide further information for preventing occurrence of crises in the EU.