# Projects

#### Possibilities and Constraints of Modelling of Economical Development in Slovak Republic as Possible Approach of Theoretical Hypothesis Verification

Head of project##### RNDr. Viliam Pálenik, PhD., h.doc.

Members of project

Ing. Marek Radvanský, PhD., Ing. Martin Mlýnek, Ing. Vladimír Kvetan

Duration of the project: 01/2006 – 12/2008

ID number: 2/6052/6PROJECT SGA

Project is focused on modeling behaviour of small open economy. The focal point of project is integration of three approaches of modelling: Mathematical economy, ekonometry and computable general equilibrium modelling. This will be used on verification of scientific hypotesis of behaviour of small open economies and based apon example of Slovaks Republic economy. In the field of mathematical economy project will expand and modify basic Mundell-Fleming model into representaion of mathematicaly formalized model, whose behaviour will be studied with qualitative analysis tools and confronted with qualitative characteristics of behaviour of Slovak economy. In the area of econometric modeling study will be based on exploitation of error corection models in forecast of future economy development. For computable general equilibrium models the key future will be dynamization of model it self with study of concept of closing. This will enable a komplex study of different theoretical approaches in our conditions.

Macroeconomic models are periodically constructed in the condition of transitive economies. These models are applied in the empirical analyses of particular economic policy. Several teams are systematically dealing with this in the conditions of SR. Ascention of relavant coutries into EU will be a challenge for improvement of models. New time series has to be taken into account which will enable modelling of economic policies of new member countries. Models will be based on error correction methodology.

For different purpose of modeling economic behaviours of market subject working group will use CGE models. Despite that CGE models are relatively new methodology of modeling Slovak republic have good position in central Europe. Application of CGE models have satisfatory prediction ability.

Methodologic base of research will be mathematical economy, econometry and CGE models. Time series, wich will be used with mathematical modelling will be assembled generaly from data of Statistical office of Slovak Republic and National Bank of Slovakia. In area of foreign trade avialable data will be assembled from relevant sources, like EHK OSN. In area of EU development, projects time series will be based on data from Eurostat. For CGE model, social accounting matrix (SAM) will be constructed from Imput-Output tabels of Statistical Office of Slovakia. Data will be continously updated.KVETAN, V. – PÁLENÍK, V.: Health and Morbidity in the Accession Countries Country Report – Slovak Republic. ENEPRI Research report No. 30, Ahead WP2, december 2006, 69 p. ISBN 92-9074-648-0 (scientific publication available on internet: http://www.enepri.org, www.ceps.be )

KVETAN, V. – MORVAY, K., – MLÝNEK, M., – RADVANSKÝ, M.: Updated Social and economic situation development prognosis in selected districts of SR until 2013 (case of Lučenec and Bratislava),. The institute of economic research SAS, EŠ 2, 64 p. ISSN 1337-0812 (electronic version)

KVETAN, V. – PÁLENÍK, V. – MORVAY, K., – MLÝNEK, M., – RADVANSKÝ, M.: Slovak economy development prognosis in selected districts of SR until 2013 (case of Nové Mesto nad Váhom and Nové Zámky). The institute of economic research SAS, 2006, EŠ 1, 66 p. ISSN 1337-0812 (electronic version)

KVETAN, V. – MLÝNEK, M. – RADVANSKÝ, M.: Modified model HERMIN in condition of SR. Forum Statisticum Slovacum, Vol. 2, 2006, No. 2, pp. 190 – 197. (In: EKOMSTAT 2006. Statistical methods in practice, Slovak statistical and demographical society, Trenčianske Teplice 21. − 26. 5. 2006, pp. 190 – 197. ISBN 1336-7420.)

BAKOŠOVÁ, K. – KVETAN, V. – SEKEREŠ, S.: Static CGE model for SR. Forum Statisticum Slovacum, Vol. 2, 2006, No. 2, pp. 198 – 207. (In: EKOMSTAT 2006. Statistical methods in practice, Slovak statistical and demographical society, Trenčianske Teplice 21. − 26. 5. 2006, pp. 198 – 207. ISBN 1336-7420)

PÁLENÍK, V. – RADVANSKÝ, M.: Application of the models HERMIN and CGE for assess the financial allocation of NSSR. Forum Statisticum Slovacum, Vol. 2, 2006, No. 2, pp. 208 − 216. (In: EKOMSTAT 2006. Statistical methods in practice, Slovak statistical and demographical society, Trenčianske Teplice 21. − 26. 5. 2006, pp. 208 − 216. ISBN 1336-7420)

LUPTÁČIK, M. – ĎURAŠ, J. – HRIVNÁKOVÁ, J – KVETAN, V. – ONDKO, P. – PÁLENÍK, V.: Formalized model of transitive economy – case of SR, Politická ekonomie, Vol. 54, No. 2 (2006), pp. 227.-246.

KVETAN, V. – MLÝNEK, M. – RADVANSKÝ, M.: Model HERMIN. Journal of economics, 54, 2006, No. 10, pp. 994 − 1008.

KVETAN, V. – MLÝNEK, M. – PÁLENÍK, V. – RADVANSKÝ, M.: Projection of Slovak economy development from 2007 to 2015 with emphasis on development of GDP and employment. In: Pohľady na ekonomiku Slovenska 2007. Coference under the auspices of deputy prime minister of the Government and minister of finance SR Dušan Čaplovič. Slovak statistical and demographical society, Bratislava 27. 3. 2007, pp. 50 – 58. ISBN 978-80-88946-46-5

### Contact

**Institute of Economic Research SAS**

Sancova 56

Bratislava 811 05

Tel.: +421-2-5249 5480

Fax: +421-2-5249 5106

lenka.bartosova@savba.sk Slovenská akadémia vied