Projects

Modelling of Economic Development of the Slovack Republic

RNDr. Viliam Pálenik, PhD., h.doc.

Members of project
Ing. Jaroslav Vokoun, Milota Šujanová, Ivan Šujan, Marián Mráz, Mikuláš Ľuptáčik, Ing. Vladimír Kvetan, Tatiana Krasuľová, Ing. Daneš Brzica, PhD., Ladislav Bors, Michal Benčík

• Basic informations
• Characteristics
• Outputs

• Duration of the project/from to: 01/1997 – 12/1999
  Registration number: 2/4138/97
  
• Research results should serve to understanding of character and logic of the Slovak economy. It will steam from an analysis of standard economic theories. Generalised conclusions of an economy of the analyses can be a contribution for theoretical understanding of economy in post transition period and will be used for building of models. The research can also contribute to real understanding of possibility and efficiency of economic policy tools.
  A methodological basis of the research will be econometric and statistical methods. Time series used in this mathematical modelling will be set especially from the Statistical Office’s (of the Slovak Republic) and the National Bank of Slovakia’s data. In the area of foreign trade also accessible data of relevant international institutions like OECD and EEC UNO will be used.
  Time series will be updated. A basis for selection of methodological attitudes of balanced growth period model building will be comparison of the use of standard theoretical structures to the studied subject. Taken into account will be Keynesian and post-Keynesian theory, monetary, neo - Keynesian and rational expectation theories.
  Built models will consist of a central block of production process together with more partial deeply set of partial models, blocks. The role of the central model will be expressions among aggregated or partially indicators of production process, respectively, as well as expression of total impact of economic policy tools. And influences of development of these indicators. The role of partial blocks of the model will be more detailed analysis of individual parts or aspects of production process, expressed in the central model. At the same time the aim is to collect data for more accurate measurement of these aggregated proportions according to the results of partial analysis simulations and forecasts.
  
• PÁLENÍK, V.: Modelisation macro et micro-economique (Le systeme de prevision economique en Slovaquie). Paris, IIAP 1997, 31 p.
  PÁLENÍK, V.: Modelisation macro et micro-economique (Simulation des alternatives choisies de la Politique economique). Paris, IIAP 1997, 16 p.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - BORS, L. - KVETAN, V. - LUPTÁČIK, M. - VOKOUN, J.: Modelling of the economic development of the Slovak republic (1. phase of project VEGA nr. 2/413/98), Bratislava, The institute of economic research SAS, 1998, VP 1, 105 p.
  FIDRMUC, J. - PÁLENÍK, V. - UNČOVSKÝ, L.: (0,3) Slovak Republic. In: HELMENSTEIN, CH. (Ed.): Capital Markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Cheltenham, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. 1999, pp. 184-213.
  PÁLENÍK, V.: RM-System Slovakia. In: HELMENSTEIN, CH. (Ed.): Capital Markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Cheltenham, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. 1999, pp. 371-380.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - BORS, L. - KVETAN, V. - VOKUN, J.: Construction and Verification of Macroeconomic Model ISWE97q3. Journal of economics, 46, 1998, No. 3, pp. 428-466.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - BORS, L. - KVETAN, V.: Prediction of macroeconomic indicators of Slovak economic development, 1998-2000, Journal of economics, 46, 1998, No. 4, pp. 506-532.
  BORS, L. - JACOBS, J. - KUPER, G. H. - KVETAN, V.: (0,5) The Composite Leading Indicator of the Slovak Republic Business Cycle: Construction and Forecast. Journal of economics, 47, 1999, No. 1, pp. 3-19.
  BORS, L. - PÁLENÍK, V.: Dependancy of state budget revenues on macroeconomic development and their influence on GDP development. Journal of economics, 47, 1999, No. 3, pp. 374-391.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - VOKOUN, J. - KVETAN, V.: Forecast of economic development in Slovakia for 1999 with an outlook until 2002. SME, Vol. 6, 1998, No. 278 from 1.12.1998, pp. 8.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - VOKOUN, J. - KVETAN, V.: Forecast of economic development in Slovakia for 1999 with an outlook until 2002 (2.). SME, Vol. 6, 1998, No. 284 from 8.12.1998, pp. 7.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - VOKOUN, J. - KVETAN, V.: Forecast of economic development in Slovakia for 1999 with an outlook until 2002 (3.). SME, Vol. 6, 1998, No. 290 from 15. 12. 1998, pp. 7.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - OKÁLI, I.: (0,5) About the changes of WAT, import charges and monetary policy. Hospodárske noviny, 1999, No. 59 from 26. 3. 1999, p. 1 and 2.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - VOKOUN, J. - BORS, L. - KVETAN, V.: Alternative scenario with expectation of moderately expansive monetary policy. SME, Vol. 7, 1999, No. 71 from 26. 3. 1999, appendix Kapitál, pp. 2.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - OKÁLI, I.: (0,5) Variants and priorities of economic policy. HN, 1999, No. 60 from 29. 3. 1999, pp. 3.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - BORS, L.: Government´s curative proceedings and their macroeconomical contexts. 1999, Hospodárske noviny, No. 110 from 9. 6. 1999, p. 9.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - BORS, L.: Reasonably indebtedness. Pravda, Vol. 9, 1999, No. 148 from 29. 6. 1999, pp. 15.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - BORS, L.: Consequences of the WAT increase. Profit, 1999, No. 29 from 13. 7. 1999, pp. 20.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - KRASUĽOVÁ, T.: Trade deficit and exchange rate. Hospodárske noviny, 1999, No. 144 from 28. 7. 1999, pp. 6.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - KRASUĽOVÁ, T.: Balance of trade analysis and the exchange rate. Profit, 1999, No. 33 from 10. 8. 1999, pp. 20-21.
  PÁLENÍK, V.: Need for public administration reform in light of international comparison. Hospodárske noviny, 1999, No. 163 from 24. 8. 1999, pp. VII.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - BORS, L. - KVETAN, V.: Econometric Model Application for the Forecasting Macroeconomic Trend of the Slovak Republic. Central European journal for Operations Research and Economics, Vol. 6, 1998, No. 3-4, pp. 237-244.
  PÁLENÍK, V. - VOKOUN, J. - KVETAN, V.: Forecast of Economic Development in Slovakia for 1999 with an Outlook until 2002. Biatec 7, 1999, No. 1, pp. 33-36.
  PÁLENÍK, V.: Model Analysis of Monetary Indicators Development in the SR. Bratislava, The institute of economic research SAS 1998, 35 p.