Ekonomický časopis - Obsahy ročníkov

After the start of recovery (in 2010) from previous recession, the develop-ment of the Slovak economy in 2011 became more volatile. In the first half of 2011 the positive tendencies continued and the economic development was more favorable than expected, in the second half of 2011 renewed concerns about a new recession emerged. In 2011, some significant changes in development tendencies occurred: the price level growth revived, the public finance balance improved and the employment growth was observed after a longer period. The impacts of debt crisis and the pes-simism connected with it were at the time not as negative as expected earlier. Therefore, we are not seeing the recession as the most likely development scenario up to 2013. We are expecting that the economic development in the upcoming years will be accompanied by relatively weak economic growth, with some signs of instability. For the policy makers it will be important, in addition to the stabilization and public finance consolidation, to restore the confidence of economic agents in the economy.

V príspevku skúmame sigma konvergenciu a konvergenciu časových radov na reálnom HDP per capita (v domácej mene aj v eurách) pre CEE8 krajiny počas obdobia 1995:Q1 – 2011:Q1 s využitím metodológie testovania stacionarity prostredníctvom DF-GLS testu a Lee-Strazicich (2003; 2004) testu, ktorý umožňuje aj zahrnutie endogénnych zlomov v trende a konštantne. Vzhľadom na geografickú a ekonomickú pozíciu Nemecka voči skúmaným krajinám sme túto krajinu zvolili ako benchmark. Získané výsledky naznačujú, že väčšina krajín CEE8 konvergovala pred zlomom v trende, avšak po endogénne zistenom zlome sa konvergencia spomalila, prípadne krajiny začali divergovať.