Číslo 10 - Ročník 64/2016
Are the Confidence Indicators Meaningful for Forecasting Real Economy? Testing Power of Confidence Indicators for Industry Output, Prices and Employment in the Visegrád Group Countries
Strana 923, Číslo 10 - Ročník 64/2016
Tento článok analyzuje prediktívnu silu predstihových ukazovateľov pre vývoj priemyselnej produkcie, cien výrobcov a zamestnanosti v Českej republike, Slovenskej republike, Maďarsku a Poľsku (krajiny V4). Aplikuje sa Grangerov test kauzality na detekciu potenciálnej príčinnej súvislosti medzi predstihovými ukazovateľmi a ukazovateľmi skutočného vývoja ekonomiky. Následne sa identifikujú najlepšie modely OLS s autoregresívnymi členmi doplnené o predstihové indikátory. Presnosť predikcií takýchto modelov je testovaná v porovnaní s benchmarkovými modelmi ARMA prostredníctvom Dieboldovho-Marianovho testu. Všetky OLS modely poskytli lepšie výsledky z hľadiska prediktívnej sily ako naivné modely. Závery porovnaní indikujú, že predstihové ukazovatele reflektujú trendy budúceho vývoja v nasledujúcich 1 – 2 mesiacoch, a nielen názory ekonomických agentov založené na súčasných alebo minulých vývojových trendoch.
Inflation in Poland under State-Dependent Pricing
Strana 937, Číslo 10 - Ročník 64/2016
We investigate the short-term dynamics of the Polish economy by means of a small-scale DSGE model with stochastic menu costs. We compare macroeconomic evidence of price rigidity in a model with the state-dependent Phillips curve to a benchmark model with a conventional time-dependent price stickiness. With a moderate 2.3% upper boundary on menu costs the estimated state-dependent pricing model for Poland indicates a median duration of prices about 14 months, whereas the same measure of price stickiness in the time-dependent pricing model is 3 months shorter. The result from the state-dependent pricing model estimated from macro data is closer to, both, micro-price evidence, and surveys on frequency of price changes in Poland. The difference is explained by a selection effect being present in the model with state-dependent price stickiness, only. It yields more intense and impact price adjustment after a monetary policy shock.
Economic, Demographic and Institutional Determinants of the Insurance Market
Strana 958, Číslo 10 - Ročník 64/2016
Článok pojednáva o základných socioekonomických úlohách a vplyvoch jednotlivých determinantov rozvoja poistného trhu. Určujúcou závislou premennou v rámci výskumu je predpísané poistné. Na tejto premennej sme postavili komplexnú analýzu poistného trhu. Štúdia potvrdzuje, že vplyv hospodárskeho rastu na poistný trh je signifikantne pozitívny. V oblasti demografických determinantov sme jasne preukázali, že zmena počtu zamestnaných osôb v službách ovplyvňuje poistný trh malých otvorených ekonomík. V rámci inštitucionálnych determinantov sme ich vplyv preukázali v rámci determinantu hrubé národné výdavky.
Concept for Measuring the Efficiency of Public Goods Provision Based on the Education Sector in Poland
Strana 973, Číslo 10 - Ročník 64/2016
The problem of quantifying public goods is one of the most complex problems related to public choice theory. We argue that the public goods constitute an isomorphic, socio-economic system which is not a “black box”. The central goal of the article is to develop a universal methodology for measuring the quantity and quality of public goods, and the efficiency of their provision in different sectors of the economy. The authors have applied the developed methodology to a study of the process of public goods provision in the Polish education sector. The empirical research bears out the theory that the supply of public goods in the education sector is determined by the structure of the local budgetary funds used for that purpose, and not only by the total amount of public spending.
Administrative Burdens for Establishing Companies in EU Countries
Strana 994, Číslo 10 - Ročník 64/2016
Establishing a company requires not only a viable opportunity, but also many other factors in the business environment, including the ability to overcome administrative barriers in regulatory and administrative systems, which is particularly important. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to analyse and compare the administrative burdens when establishing a company in EU countries. To assess the actual differences and similarities in administrative burdens in the process of establishing a company, countries were grouped according to four indicators using a cluster analysis. To get insights into changes in a particular country and compare it with other EU countries in terms of administrative burdens for starting a company, data from 2004, 2007, and 2016 were used. The findings show that, despite intense pressure and extensive measures implemented in the EU to reduce administrative burdens, the differences among EU member countries are still remarkable and the relative performance of some countries worsens despite absolute lessening of burdens on the national level.