Publications - Others

After about half a year we come back to the outlook that we published as part of a regular analysis of economic developments in Slovakia (Morvay et al., 2012- hereinafter „spring forecast“). It is a opportune moment for confrontation of the spring forecast with the actual development in 2012, to reassess assumptions and to correct the forecast values. The updated outlook was prepared at a time when more than one year (since August 2011) the European economy goes through a "second wave of crisis". After the first wave of crisis in the period 2008/2009 and a short recovery (2010), the economy found itself in an unusually long period of uncertainty and mistrust regarding economic events. The European economy is lapsing into recession again. The onset of a new recession is significantly less straightforward than in previous recession. And most importantly, the Slovak economy has shown some - perhaps surprising signs of resistance to it.