Projects

Macroeconomic Modelling of the Slovak Republic, Using the of Alternative Steps of Economic Policy Simulation

RNDr. Viliam Pálenik, PhD., h.doc.

Members of project
Ing. Jaroslav Vokoun, Milota Šujanová, Ivan Šujan, Mikuláš Ľuptáčik, Ing. Vladimír Kvetan, Katarína Krivanská, Ladislav Bors

• Basic informations
• Characteristics
• Outputs

• Duration of the project/from to: 01/2000 – 12/2002
  Registration number: 2/7125/20
  
• Project is focused on a construction and application of macroeconomic model of Slovak economy on the basis of relevant time series. It will come out from creative use of standard macroeconomic theories for small and opened economies as in case of the Slovak Republic, in a period of finishing transformation recession and starting of period of p balanced growth. Model will be used for analysis of economical development in past time period and for forecast of next period trends. Analysed will be impact of alternative economic policies using criteria of reaching balanced growth and making - ready joining EU.
  A solution of the present problems of the Slovak economy requires analyses possible requires to improve data for economic policy and to deepen systematic approach. On macro level increases social demand for analysis of production process as a whole, for research of problems in their mutual continuities with stress on various scenarios of solutions and analysis of their short term and long term consequences.
  Research results should serve to understanding of character and logic of the Slovak economy. It will steam from an analysis of standard economic theories and their ability to express situation in conditions of an economy of the beginning of third millennium. Generalised conclusions of an economy of the analyses can be a contribution for theoretical understanding of economy in post transition period and will be used for building of models. The research can also contribute to real understanding of possibility and efficiency of economic policy tools.
  A methodological basis of the research will be econometric and statistical methods. Time series used in this mathematical modelling will be set especially from the Statistical Office’s (of the Slovak Republic) and the National Bank of Slovakia’s data. In the area of foreign trade also accessible data of relevant international institutions like OECD and EEC UNO will be used.
  Time series will be updated. A basis for selection of methodological attitudes of balanced growth period model building will be comparison of the use of standard theoretical structures to the studied subject.
  Built models will consist of a central block of production process together with more partial deeply set of partial models, blocks. The role of the central model will be expressions among aggregated or partially indicators of production process, respectively, as well as expression of total impact of economic policy tools. And influences of development of these indicators. The role of partial blocks of the model will be more detailed analysis of individual parts or aspects of production process, expressed in the central model.
  
• Páleník, V., Kotov, M: Alternative scenarios of sector and branch structure of economy. In: Outrata, R. et al.: Economic and social context of Slovakia’s Integration into the EU: Benefits and risks. Bratislava, The institute of economic research SAS, 2002, pp. 300-306. (0,01)
  Páleník, V., Vokoun, J., Kvetan, V., Krivanská, K.: Projection of Slovak economy development up to 2006. Journal of economics, 49, 2001, No. 5, pp. 868-886. (1,0)
  Páleník, V., Kotov, M.: CGE model application used to quantify assets and costs of slovak republic´s entry into the European Union. Journal of economics, 50, 2002, No. 5, pp. 765-778. (1,0)
  Páleník, V., Krasuľová, T., Kvetan, V., Vokoun, J.: Forecast of economic development in Slovakia for 2000 with an outlook for 2003. In: Biatec, 8, 2000, No. 1, pp. 4-7. (1,0)
  Páleník, V., Kvetan, V., Vokoun, J.: Forecast of economic development in Slovakia for 2001 with an outlook until 2004. In: Biatec, 9, 2001, No. 2, pp. 2-5. (1,0)
  Páleník, V., Kvetan, V., Krivanská, K., Páleník, M.: Forecast of Economic Development in Slovakia for 2002 with an outlook until 2005. Biatec, 10, 2002, No. 1, pp. 5-9. (1,0)
  Páleník, V., Krasuľová, T.: Econometric modelling of financial sector of Slovak economy. In: 10. Slovak statistics conference: Actuality and future of the Slovak statistics, Smolenice, 10.-12. 5. 2000, pp. 57-61. (1,0)
  Páleník, V., Bors, L.: Monetary and fiscal model. In: Textbook EKOMSTAT´2000: Application of statistics methods in economic use, Trenčianske Teplice, 5.-9. 6. 2000, pp. 67-83. (1,0)
  Páleník, V., Krivanská, K., Kvetan, V., Paulovič, A., Roberts, G. G., Šimo, J.: Mid-term projection of trends in macroeconomic development of the Slovak health sector (Final output – English version). Bratislava, EMPO, 2002, 394 p. (0,4)
  Vagač, L., Páleník, V., Kvetan, V., Krivanská, K.: Sectoral Analysis of the Slovak Foreign Trade. Bratislava, may 2001, 36 p. (0,75)
  Vagač, L., Páleník, V., Kvetan, V., Krivanská, K.: Trade Effects of EU Integration: The Case of the Slovak Republic. Bratislava, may 2001, 27 p. (0,75)