Publications - Monographs and Scientific Edited Books

The main goal of the monograph is to present preliminary results of forecasting labour market needs in Slovakia until 2025. Despite many imperfections associated with socio-economic forecasting the main reason for their use is their value as a qualified guess of the trend development of the phenomenon under study. In this case the extent and structure of demand and supply of labour. Due to a dynamic effect of globalisation whose core characteristics are continual technological changes on one hand and population ageing on the other, the harmonisation of education, labour market and social security policy with the anticipated development is the starting point of solving problems which are in the intersection of society´s common interests. Scientific work devoted to this line of research is the starting point, assumptions about probable development, use of existing models, their modifications and a new model applying ready statistical databases are all part of the framework providing a look into the structure of future labour market needs in Slovakia.

The first chapter presents theoretical and methodological aspects, the importance of labour market needs forecasting, specifically by looking at labour market´s educational and occupational structure. The second chapter provides results of forecasted employment structure by sex, age, education and regional affiliation in the Slovak republic until 2025 by means of the VZAM model. The third chapter focuses on modeling labour force from the supply side with the emphasis on forecasting economic activity rates of the population by age groups and the average labour force participation rate by sex (using the logit model). The fourth chapter models the labour force demand by sectors of the slovak economy and uses SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) models and the HERMIN model for forecasting. The fifth and final chapter presents results of estimates of individual returns from educational investment for Slovakia as well as for European union (EU) countries based on EU-SILC (Statistics on income and living conditions) data, reflecting the changing „value of education.“