Publications - Working Papers IER SAS

The aim of this analytical commentary is to update the forecasting model, which uses error-correcting methodology (ECM). The model forecasts the Slovak economy for the following medium-term period of 2023-2026. In the commentary, special attention will be paid to the key economic indicators, including inflation, economic sentiment and industrial production, their recent development and outlook for the following years. For year 2023, we forecast a correction in economic growth, mainly in the consumer sector, caused in part by record growth of the price level in the first half of the year, decline in investment activity considering rapid interest rate growth worldwide. In the years 2024-2026, we forecast a recovery of the economy and return to a dynamic growth. Despite the positive development of the labour market and fall in the average unemployment rate, uncertainties still remain, the main being lack of qualified labour force in select sectors as health care and education.