We would like to invite you to the Empirical Seminar series organized by the Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Šancová 56 that will be held in hybrid form (online and at the library of the Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences). The seminar will take place on November 18th, 2026 at 10.00 (CET).
The speaker will be Tihana Škrinjarić (Bank of England, United Kingdom).
The topic of the seminar is: Developing a house price-at-risk framework for the UK
Authors: Tihana Škrinjarić
Abstract:
This paper develops a house price-at-risk framework for the UK. The model allows me to track and decompose different parts of the distribution of house price growth. The analysis covers both the national level, and nine English regions, along with Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. I employ a comprehensive set of variables and indicators that could help to explain house price dynamics. My main findings are that since the 1970s, the most important predictors for the tail of the distribution have been transaction growth, changes in mortgage rate, credit to GDP gap, and financial stress. I utilise several forecasting horizons and demonstrate that this framework can be applied to forecast downside risks to house price growth and the probability of negative growth up to two years ahead. At the regional level, the analysis reveals considerable variation in the estimated coefficients for mortgage interest rates, with supply-inelastic regions showing higher values than other areas. Finally, I find that an increase in the housing supply in most regions is associated with subsequent easing of price pressures in regional markets.
Further information on this research can be found here:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2026/developing-a-house-price-at-risk-framework-for-the-uk
The seminar will be co-chaired by Filip Ostrihoň.
Link: