Issue 8 - Volume 60/2012
Oil Prices and the Value of US Dollar: Theoretical Investigation and Empirical Evidence
Page 771, Issue 8 - Volume 60/2012
This paper deals with development of oil prices and the factors which have impact on these prices. The main objective of this paper is to identify the impact of movement of exchange rate of US Dollar on crude oil prices. To reach the mentioned objective we have had used theoretical and empirical analyses and methods such as regression model, Granger causality and structural models to identify to what the extent the oil prices depend on the value of US Dollar, as one of the factors influencing the oil prices in the international markets, particularly in the last two decades. We find that US Dollar has a significant impact on oil prices.
Keywords: crude oil price, US Dollar exchange rate, regression model, granger causality, structural model.
JEL Classification: C01, C32, N70, E30, Q40, Q31
How to Indicate Change-points in Economic Development
Page 791, Issue 8 - Volume 60/2012
The first decade of the new millennium has brought to the world economy and to national economies several shocks and substantially increased the risk of uncertainty. The causes of these shocks varied during that period and stemmed from the mortgage crisis, the crisis in the banking sector or the problematic parameters in fiscal economies of individual countries, especially those in Europe. These causes were often interrelated, and, respectively, they followed each other in relatively quick succession. The article shows how to use the probit analysis to indicate the possible twists and turns in the development of economy based on high probability of their occurrence. Along with the probit analysis method, Koyck linear dynamic model with time-lagged independent (explanatory) variable is also used, which allow for setting the advance of those indicators that can affect economic development and mark the regime change-points.
Keywords: GDP, forecast of change-points, probit analysis
JEL Classification: E21, C82
Dilemmas of Productive System Spontaneous Order
Page 815, Issue 8 - Volume 60/2012
The author discuses in the paper research knowledge in the field of theory of economic cycles, competitive entrepreneurial potentials, innovation dynamics, rational development and spontaneous order of productive systems (firms). Presented approaches to given issues are supported by works of other scholars in related fields. At the same time it introduces un-published thoughts of theoretical and applied character. By using logical instruments author come up to a dilemma of “relative and golden section” of productive system evolution. “Relative and golden sections” occur in various objects and processes in different moments in time and even though they are related and implicate each other. It is necessary to emphasize the eclectic and syncretistic approach in the science methodology, social science in particular. In finding of harmony in diversities, unity in contrasts, quality in quantity, the beginning of the novel in the destruction of the old, the effect in potential, macro economical world in microeconomics and vice versa, etc., is the foundation of the new insight, that should be brought into economics, management theory or business.
Keywords: theory of economic cycles, entrepreneurial potential, spontaneous order, productive system, firm, innovation dynamics
JEL Classification: A12, D21, L25, M13, M21, O32
Possibilities of Predicting the Behavior of Managers When Coping with Demanding Situations in Managerial Work
Page 835, Issue 8 - Volume 60/2012
In this study we present the results of developing the original SSPMPR methodology (Spôsoby správania v manažérskej práci – Ways of behaving in managerial work). The analyzed data were got from 174 respondents, from various positions in management. The gained results claimed theme a ningfulness of the empirical-inductive approach to defining the taxonomy of these ways along with specifying five factors – emotional factor of coping, cognitive factor of coping I, cognitive factor of coping II, behavioral factor of coping I and behavioral factor of coping II. The presented basic parameters of the developed methodology (factor structure, Cronbach's alpha coefficients, intercorrelations of factors, validation study) show the suitability of this methodology for prediction and detection of the ways of solving demanding situations in managerial work, with obvious implications in performance of managers and in efficiency of business management.
Keywords: management, managerial work, demanding situations
JEL Classification: Z13, M12, M14, D74
Nation-States as Investors in a Globalized World
Page 854, Issue 8 - Volume 60/2012
The article deals with problems of an inception and existence of sovereign wealth funds in a present world, with their size, types and goals. These funds do not present an economic problem, but they invoke fears concerning a national security and a state sovereignty in case of their entrance into the sensitive industries as a defence industry, energy, an infrastructure etc. in host countries. So there is an effort to establish an international regime of this fund performance which would increase especially their transparency and accountability. Except from it there is discussed the existence of these fund as one form of an external imbalance manifestation and also the manifestation of a changing hegemony in today’s world from developed countries in favour of Asiatic states.
Keywords: sovereign wealth funds, external imbalance, regulation, national security
JEL Classification: F21, F36, F52, F55, F59