Issue 7 - Volume 64/2016
Is there any Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index in Slovakia? A Bootstrap Rolling Approach
Page 611, Issue 7 - Volume 64/2016
This study examines the causal link between the producer price index (PPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) in Slovakia. We use the bootstrap Granger full sample causality, and the sub-sample rolling window approach and results indicate the unidirectional causality running from the PPI to the CPI. By taking the structural changes into consideration, the full sample causal relationship is unstable and such results are misappropriated. Further, we use a time-varying rolling window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationship between the PPI and the CPI. It indicates the existence of bi-directional causality between the two series in several sub-samples and the result supports the neoclassical profit-maximizing model, which shows that PPI plays a key role in the CPI in the Slovakia. We find that the PPI has a more contributing role to the CPI so the central bank can minimise the inflation by taking certain predictive measures to keep the input prices under control. The central bank should consider the reliable response of the prices at an aggregated and disaggregated level of production in the formulation of inflation targeting.
Keyword: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, rolling window, time-varying causality, bootstrap
JEL Classification: C32, E31
Unemployment and its Cost to Public Budgets in the Czech Republic in 2010 – 2015
Page 629, Issue 7 - Volume 64/2016
Within the EU, the Czech Republic belongs to the countries with unemploy-ment below average. Therefore, it may seem that unemployment benefits and other direct costs connected with unemployment constitute a rather small expenditure. In our paper we show that this first impression is false. This paper comprehensively assesses the impact of unemployment on public budgets. Its contributions are as follows: (1) we discuss the methodological problems that are associated with particular methods of the impact calculation, and (2) we quantify the impacts for the Czech Republic budgets in the years 2010 – 2015 and compare them with other studies. Our results suggest that in 2015 the annual costs of unemployment reached EUR 9.064 per unemployed person. According to other studies, the nominal value of the costs is slightly higher than is the case in Slovakia (as a similar economy) and lower than the results for traditional European countries. The results are also lower when the costs are compared to average labour costs in the economy.
Keywords: unemployment; social policy; public expenditure; tax revenue; economic modeling
JEL Classification: C63, E24, H24, H55, J68
Decomposition Analysis of the Material Consumption in the European Union
Page 646, Issue 7 - Volume 64/2016
The decomposition analysis (DA) has become a widely accepted analytical tool for policymaking on environmental issues. By means of the Log-Mean Divisia Index Method (LMDI) a decomposition of the data on the Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) in the European Union (EU) in 2002 – 2014 is carried out. To detect the factors of de/coupling of the environmental variable, represented by the DMC, from the economic variable, represented by the GDP, in the EU economy, the changes of DMC were divided into three effects. These factors include the economic activity (scale), the composition or structure of the EU economy with respect to the countries, and material intensity of the countries. The results indicate that the intensity effect showed the highest magnitude in the longer-term periods 2002 – 2014 and 2004 – 2014, but overall and in the majority of years, this effect was negative. The scale effect showed the second highest extent, whereas the composition effect was only slight. Both of them were positive in the majority of the years as well as in total.
Keywords: Decomposition Analysis (DA), Sustainable Development (SD), Log-Mean Divisia Index Method (LMDI), European Union (EU), Domestic Material Consumption (DMC)
JEL Classification: Q32, Q51, Q56, F64
Internationalization of Renminbi and the Real Effective Exchange Rate
Page 666, Issue 7 - Volume 64/2016
The idea of examining the effects of chosen variables versus the real effective exchange rate (REER) arose after observing the current tendencies in global trade processes and the position of China on global markets. Also the eruption of the world financial and economic crisis led to devaluation processes of world currencies and introduction of massive quantitative easing programs which distorted competitiveness of countries. China is not an exception. The key objective of the article is to find out how the foreign direct investment (FDI), openness of Chinese economy, GDP growth and total unemployment affects the REER of China during the periods between 1991 and 2014. In addition, terms of trade and net foreign trade will be tested additionally as explanatory factors. The OLS method was used to establish the relationship as well as the direction of causation between variables.
Keywords: renminbi, real effective exchange rate, foreign direct investment, import, export
JEL Classification: D53, E01, F31
Changes in Revenue Structure in Czech Non-profit Organizations during the Financial Crises: Has the Importance of Public Sources Changed?
Page 686, Issue 7 - Volume 64/2016
Non-profit institutions are characterized by their multi-source funding. There are numerous publications on this issue, including discussions concerning the public funding impact on their behavior. The situation in (post)transformation countries is specific. The ongoing process of re-definition of the role of the non-profit institutions (NPIs) play and the consequent question of public support have not been studied with the appropriate data. We designed a survey by which we mapped how the amount and structure of the sources of non-profit institutions changed in the Czech context between 2008 and 2013. Our results show that although the average revenue of a non-profit organization within this particular time period increased, the relative importance of public funding did not change. However, there are rather large differences between the subjects of the survey based on industry.
Keywords: non-profit institution, revenue structure, public funding, institutional environment, non-profit sectors
JEL Classification: L31, L38