Journal of Economics - Obsahy ročníkov

This paper investigates the impact of quantitative and qualitative factors on the long-term sovereign credit ratings of nine countries that joined the European Union in 2004 (Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Among this group, two subgroups are distinguished – euro area members and countries that pursue an independent monetary policy. The analysis is conducted for the period of 2004q1 – 2018q4, which is later divided into pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis sub-periods. Using a panel fixed effects model with robust standard errors, we find that the macroeconomic variables played the dominant role throughout the period under analysis, and particularly during the crisis. Moreover, the quality of governance had an important impact on the ratings in all three sub-periods. We also find that euro area membership has provided additional benefits in terms of countries’ perceived credibility.

The European Commission re-launched its proposal on the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) in Europe in October 2016. The CCCTB aims to help ensure a fair and efficient corporate tax system in the European Union as a tool to fight tax evasion and tax fraud. Moreover, the CCCTB could be intended to be used as a new resource for the EU budget, as the EU budget requires reassessment after Brexit. Although the outcome of the Brexit process was uncertain for a long time, the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020. The objective of this paper is to research the impact of the introduction of the CCCTB on the EU’s economic environment in the post-Brexit period. The research reveals that the overall tax base under the CCCTB in the post-Brexit period would decline by 5.34% in comparison with the current tax base. Through a dynamic approach, we find that the CCCTB could increase the tax base by between 3.33% and 22.42%, depending on the behavioural effects induced by the implementation of the proposal.

The paper presents applications of portfolio techniques including proposed modification of the Black-Litterman approach for pension funds’ performance evaluation on the Slovak private pension funds markets and deals with: how effective are the investment strategies of companies on the market of specific pension funds; if the investment strategies outcomes match the companies' officially declared fund strategy type in a risk-return space; and if the legislative changes on the pension market segment impact those funds strategies. Relative positions of single funds are identified by constructing efficient frontiers in various spaces. As a result, the investment strategies create clusters for conservative, balanced, and index funds, while the growth funds have higher strategies variance. It is shown that the legislative changes concerning mainly more risky funds have an important influence on the second pillar growth funds investment strategies. The results show high interactions between legislative changes and investment decisions.

The aim of this article is to analyse the impact of selected macroeconomic indicators on mortgage loans in the V4. This group of countries was chosen because they are close, both geographically and economically. This paper tries to find reasons for possible differences or similarities between the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. The article analyses which of the macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation, the unemployment rate, and mortgage interest rate) affect the volume of mortgage loans. The article uses the tools of time series econometrics, especially the ADF test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Error Correction Model (ECM), and the Granger causality test. It was found that there is a short-term relationship between the volume of mortgage loans and GDP for all countries, except Poland. Over a longer time series, however, a long-term relationship exists for all of countries between the volume of mortgage loans and GDP, the mortgage interest rate, and the unemployment rate. The data used is based on a quarterly time series running from 2005Q1 to 2019Q4.

The aim of the paper is to identify whether electoral uncertainty affects corporate investment, which may cause cyclical fluctuations in European countries. More specifically, the paper focuses on the development of a net fixed-asset investment from 2006 to 2015. Electoral uncertainty is associated with the parliamentary election term since this is the most common election type. The paper is focused on 268,000 firms within the secondary sector (NACE Rev. 2 Sections C – F; Amadeus database). The results suggest that electoral uncertainty may have a negative impact on investment in the secondary sector. Comparing individual industries shows that the negative impact may occur in the construction industry, whereas the effect is statistically inconclusive in the case of manufacturing. Considering the size of the enterprises, electoral uncertainty has a greater impact on SMEs, generally in the secondary sector and, more specifically, in construction. Extending the topic of the economic consequences of the political cycle, including the impact of electoral uncertainty on corporate investment across sectors and business sizes, can be considered as the main contribution of the article.