Journal of Economics - Obsahy ročníkov

After a rather long period of unprecedented economic growth, the Slovak Republic experienced an economic downturn in 2009. The small open economy, with an insufficient domestic market, responded sensitively to the slump in external demand. This was not the first serious destabilization of the Slovak economy, but the first one caused primarily by the external environment. Employment has been hit particularly hard by the recession, even though with a notable delay. The economy began to recover slowly in the first half of 2010; however the signs of recovery appear to differ considerably across sectors. We expect fragile re-covery to continue further in 2010 (differentiated broadly by sectors), while the labour market development remains troubled. And with a certain time delay, the government’s consolidation effort will probably enter this process. Keywords: economic growth, economic policy, economic recession, country study – Slovakia, forecast, production, balance of payments, external trade, la-bour market, public finance, monetary policy JEL Classification: D11, E23, E37, E52, E62, F14, F32, J20, L60, O10, O52

Forecasting of future economic development quite a short time after the global economic crisis is more than a complicated task. The main uncertainty is linked to the process of recovery of the world economy from the crisis and the direction of governments’ economic policies and their corresponding effectiveness. Nevertheless, it is necessary to develop such forecasts, to collect them and compare with different approaches of particular forecasting works. This article represents the approach of the team of the Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences. Forecast is based on the econometric model B_IER SAS ECM 09q4 and is focused on the GDP and its components, the labour market and public budget revenues. The time horizon is limited to years 2010 and 2015 and continues two years beyond the end of the financial programming pe-riod of the EU. Keywords: economic forecast, Slovak Republic, economic crisis, GDP growth, state budget JEL Classification: C51, C53, E17

The paper determines absolute and relative values of tax burden dissociation imposed on cigarettes in the Czech Republic and Slovakia based on analysis of average weighted prices of cigarettes in the years 2004 – 2009. Essential is comparing of calculated prices and tax burden imposed on cigarettes in given price level before and after tax burden change. The identification of determinants which affect tax shift measure and factors which affect calculated out-comes is important. The methods of measuring tax incidence including its out-comes in this paper are also described. This makes possible to set the common results about shifts of increased tax burden imposed on cigarettes in specific conditions in the Czech Republic and Slovakia including their comparison with theoretical and practical observations in given area. Keywords: excise, cigarette, tax burden, consumer, producer, Czech Republic, Slovakia JEL Classification: H22