Issue 2 - Volume 65/2017
Nowcasting Slovak GDP by a Small Dynamic Factor Model
Page 107, Issue 2 - Volume 65/2017
The aim of this paper is to estimate a small dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting GDP growth in Slovakia. The model predicts the developments of real activity based on monthly indicators, such as sales, employment, employers’ health care contributions, export and foreign surveys. The forecast accuracy of the model prevails over naive models that ignore monthly data. This result holds especially on the shortest horizon of one quarter ahead and on the evaluation period including the crisis of 2008 – 2009. Thus we may conclude that our small DFM is a valuable indicator of business cycle turning points in Slovakia. Further, the model allows for frequent and automatic updates of the GDP forecast each time new monthly data becomes available. This makes it useful for institutions which monitor the developments of monthly indicators of real activity.
Keywords: dynamic factor model, real activity, short-term forecasting
JEL Classification: C52, C53, E23, E27
Why don’t Eastern Europeans Work Part-time?
Page 125, Issue 2 - Volume 65/2017
This article explores the development of part-time employment in Central and Eastern Europe compared to Western Europe. The analysis of panel data reveals the role of part-time work determinants on the macro level and their different effects on part-time employment in the two groups of countries. The large set of determinants includes business cycle, labour market institutions and structural factors. The results indicate that part-time employment in the East and the West is influenced by different, mostly structural, factors. In the East, the development of business cycle has a significant adverse effect. Further, rigorous EPL limits the use of part-time contracts by firms in the East while higher trade union density, greater share of temporary jobs and widespread shadow economy all have a positive effect on part-time employment in this region.
Keywords: part-time employment, business cycle, labour market institutions, working time
JEL Classifications: J21, J22, O57, E24
Key Factors for Public Utility Efficiency and Effectiveness: Waste Management Services in the Czech Republic
Page 143, Issue 2 - Volume 65/2017
The article is focused on empirical analysis of municipal waste management services in the Czech Republic. Authors have identified the following key factors for public utility efficiency and effectiveness: recycling, competition, form of company ownership, the effects of economies of scale, inter-municipal cooperation, distance to landfill and hybrid organization. The aim of the article is to analyse these factors, and to discuss their relationship to cost efficiency and effectiveness with a focus on the impact of municipality size. Waste management expenditure in municipalities is most influenced by the achievement of economies of scale. Additionally, it was found that if a waste collection company is under public ownership, this has a similarly strong impact on expenditure. Another two important factors associated with cost savings and the management of waste collection companies are inter-municipal cooperation and hybrid organization, which are of equal importance.
Keywords: waste management, efficiency, Czech Republic, economies of scale, inter-municipal cooperation
JEL Classification: H76, Q53
Single Monetary Policy versus Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Slovakia
Page 158, Issue 2 - Volume 65/2017
After introduction of Euro since January 2009 the Slovak Republic does not perform its independent monetary policy but is affected by the Euro area policy including common interest rates. Interbank interest rate is considered as a proxy-variable aggregating overall monetary policy setting. The objective of the paper is to evaluate compatibility of the Euro area interest rates with macroeconomic situation in Slovakia. In other words, the key question is whether common interest rates respond sufficiently to inflation gap, output gap or other indicators. Reaction function is estimated via linear regression with the Newey-West approach for the pre-Euro period as well as Euro period in the Slovak Republic. Results demonstrate that the Euro area interbank interest rates did not react sufficiently neither to Slovak inflation nor output gap. These led to ex-tremely low inflation during last month approaching the critical point of deflation with possible negative impacts on Slovak economy.
Keywords: interest rates, monetary rules, output gap, inflation gap
JEL Classification: E44, E52, F36
Multifactor Analysis of Online Reputation as a Tool for Enhancing Competitiveness of Subjects from Automotive Industry
Page 173, Issue 2 - Volume 65/2017
The paper discusses the issue of online reputation, more specifically the ways and methods of its measurements in selected entities operating in the automotive sector. A thorough multifactor analysis of reputation in the virtual world of the internet was conducted on a specific sample of entities/subjects – Top 15 European bestselling car brands of year 2014 operating on a selected market. Using a careful statistical testing relationships between factors were examined in order to identify and describe basic facts affecting online reputation of selected entities in the hyper competitive market environment of the internet. The findings identified by the analysis conducted on the selected part of the global market, can be effectively used in any market for the purpose of increasing competitiveness of selected entities from (not only) automotive industry. Patterns and variables affecting virtual reputation of these entities are relatively invariable across the global internet market.
Keywords: reputation, reputator, internet, automotive, competition
JEL Classification: A12, M31, O31