Journal of Economics - Obsahy ročníkov

This study explores the contradictory classifications of the post-communist Europe in the Varieties of Capitalism perspective. The paper outlines several shortcomings that contribute to the discrepancy in the past classifications. The empirical part of this paper compares two methods of the coordination index construction, the factor analysis and our own alternative calculation. Subsequently we apply both of the procedures to two groups of countries, Western and Central Eastern Europe. This way we demonstrate that even when using the same input variables a slight change of method might result into different findings. In the end we therefore argue that the future studies be more careful in the methods used as well as the country and data selection. This could potentially help to improve the comparability and the credibility of the future findings and country classifications. Keywords: Central Eastern Europe, Varieties of Capitalism, Coordination index, Factor analysis JEL Classification: C18, F55

In the article we first introduce asymmetric response of equity volatility to return shock and then the effect of good and bad news to volatility for empirical time series of EUR/USD (EUR currency against US dollar) exchange rates in the pre-crisis period, during the crisis and the post-crisis period. We found that GARCH-class models with normal errors are not capable to capture fully the leptokurtosis in empirical time series, while Student´s t and GED errors provide better description for the conditional volatility. Then, we alternatively develop forecasting models based on the ARIMA/GARCH methodology and on the neural approach. In the direct comparison between statistical and neural models, the experiment shows that the neural approach clearly improve the forecast accuracy. Keywords: time series models, high frequency data, GARCH models, asymmetric volatility, leverage effect, RBF ANN JEL Classification: C01, C22, C45, C51, C58, C62

This paper has two objectives: (1) to propose an approach to corruption risk assessment with the FMEA (Fault Mode and Effect Analysis) method and verify it on a case study (taking decisions on monument protection in the Czech Republic), and (2) to find out whether higher salary expenditures per civil servant reduce corruption risk. The paper works with the principal-agent theory and the NPM (New Public Management) concept. Results of the research point out that an increase in staff expenditures does not automatically reduce corruption. What needs to go side by side is also higher quality of institutions themselves. Correlation between resistance against corruption and higher salary has not been proven. Keywords: corruption in the Czech Republic, corruption risk, principal – agent, FMEA, salary JEL Classification: D73, H11, H76, O15

European energetic safety is belongs to the most discussed economic issues. This paper analyses impact of sudden, large-scale and persistent gas supply disruptions on the economy. This situation has been observed in real economy, more particularly in Central Europe and Balkan countries during Russia-Ukraine gas crisis at January 2009, where the gas supply was cut-off for 13 days. We will analyse the effects of this cut on Slovak economy, which belongs to one of the most affected. Economic analysis will be based on Computed General Equilibrium methodology – CGE model. Our aim is to estimate gas failure as an exogenous non-marginal supply shock with serious impact on aggregated and structural economic indicators. First quick estimation about possible daily losses at level about one third of daily GDP was confirmed. As a result of this disruption, there was implemented project in Slovakia to allow full reverse flow at main pipeline from Czech Republic. Slovakia can be now supplied from the west in case of unpredictable situation. Keywords: general equilibrium modelling, gas supply, cut-off, international trade JEL Classification: C68, L95, Q34, Q43

Hysteresis effect on unemployment is a much discussed topic in macroeconomics. However, empirical findings regarding the existence of hysteresis effect are contradictory. The present study investigates hysteresis in the unemployment rates of the Visegrad Group countries, namely: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. For this purpose it employs the following three econometric methods: (1) the linear unit root tests; (2) the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SURADF) test; and (3) the Fourier Dickey-Fuller (FADF) test. The findings revealed that among the Visegrad Group countries hysteresis effect was found to exist in the unemployment rates in Hungary and Poland. Keywords: unemployment, hysteresis effect, Visegrad countries JEL Classification: E24, C22

Gold has been historically defined as the medium of exchange. Its role is significant even today, reflecting lack of confidence in fiat currencies and turbulences in the markets with the major reserve currencies and bonds denominated in them. Until 2009, there was an apparent trend of central banks to reduce the volume of gold reserves. However, after the full break out of the financial crisis in 2008, the trend reversed towards greater hoarding of gold. Investors are also turning to gold as an investment and increase the volume of precious metals in their portfolios. High gold price broke a record in nominal terms, however, in real terms, did not reach 60% of the price level from 1980. In submitted paper, the authors devote themselves to the analysis of gold prices and factors affecting it and present the estimates of the future price development. Keywords: central banks, financial crisis, gold, monetary gold, gold reserves, investment, store of value, medium of exchange JEL Classification: E31, E42, E58, G01, Q32