Issue 10 - Volume 68/2020
“Too Much Debt Will Kill You”: Although Not in Central Europe, Yet
Page 981, Issue 10 - Volume 68/2020
We take an evidence-based approach and confirm that a high level of household debt is detrimental to consumption, disposable income, and hence economic growth in the medium term. Using a panel setting with both fixed and time effects, we isolate the effect of an excessive household debt level and show that an additional one percentage point could be associated with a 0.1% drag on GDP growth over the next three years. Although we confirm this relationship on a panel of advanced economies, we show that emerging economies such as Central and Eastern European economies, possess structural characteristics (a shallow capital market, less finance and more social cohesion) that so far prevents such a demand constraint from materializing.
Keywords: wealth inequality, secular stagnation, household debt;
JEL Classification: E51, H31, R21
Driving Forces of Total Factor Productivity in Europe
Page 1002, Issue 10 - Volume 68/2020
In this paper, we explore the driving forces behind total factor productivity growth in 28 European countries in the period from 2005 to 2019. Based on neoclassical theory, theory of endogenous economic growth and competitiveness theory we formulate four research hypotheses related to the impact of technological readiness, human capital, business and tax environment and creativity on the TFP growth. We used fixed effects model focusing on the impact within the countries. Our results suggest that technological readiness is an important driving force behind TFP growth. We could only partially confirm the impact of the remaining explanatory variables.
Keywords: total factor productivity, TFP, economic growth, technology, human capital, creativity;
JEL Classification: B40, C01, C50, E10, G28
Prediction of the Bankruptcy of Slovak Companies Using Neural Networks with SMOTE
Page 1021, Issue 10 - Volume 68/2020
Although the bankruptcy prediction models can be a stabilizing element on both macro and microeconomic levels, they are rather a domain of academic research than an instrument, widely applied in a business practice. It is especially true if the models are reflecting the conditions of countries of their origin, rather than countries of their intended uses. Besides, few of the models contain inherent flaws, including the absence of a methodical approach addressing this problem of the severely imbalanced representation of bankrupt companies in financial datasets. The article is focused on the use of oversampling with SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique) algorithm under the condition of extremely imbalanced data sets of Slovak companies. While the model does not provide a single answer in many (if not most) of the situations, it still could be used for the selection of companies for which the more detailed (and expensive) analysis is not required.
Keywords: artificial neural networks, bankruptcy model, oversampling, SMOTE, imbalanced data;
JEL Classification: M41, C45, G33
Evaluation and Development of Environmental and Health Efficiency: Case of V4 Countries
Page 1040, Issue 10 - Volume 68/2020
The study deals with the topic of evaluation and comparison of environmental efficiency and efficiency of health care systems in the V4 countries during the period from 2009 to 2017. The uniqueness of this study lies in the comparison of two different types of efficiencies and in the selection of the object of research. The aim of this paper was to examine the possible relationship between environmental and health efficiency in the V4 countries and to reveal the common determinants of these efficiencies. We implemented the method of two-step Data envelopment analysis, in which, we determined the values of input CCR and BCC health and environmental efficiency in the first step and then in the second step, we used the method of truncated regression to verify the effects of selected determinants of computed efficiencies in V4 countries. Based on these analyses, we found that although there is no significant relationship between the values of health efficiency and environmental efficiency, some determinants significantly affect both types of efficiencies.
Keywords: healthcare, environment, efficiency, DEA, truncated regression;
JEL Classification: C67, I15, I18, Q50
Determinants of the FDI Inflow into the Visegrad Countries
Page 1057, Issue 10 - Volume 68/2020
The FDI inflow represents an important part of the Visegrad economies. These countries have experienced a high rate of foreign direct investment since the 1990s. However, the flow of investment is different among these countries with a diverse peak of inflow into individual economies. Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary and Poland reformed their political and economic systems and were considered as transition economies. Just like other transition economies, the economic, social and political system of the Visegrad Group countries have some peculiarities. The inflow of foreign direct investment is determined by many factors that might influence the inflow of foreign direct investment positively, but also in a negative way. The paper identifies specific determinants of the inflow of foreign direct investment into the Visegrad Group countries and it assess their impact on the investment inflow. We apply panel regression with the use of standardized variables. Based on the results, we may consider as determinants influencing the FDI inflow into the V4 countries the size of the economy, or its potential, labour productivity, corporate tax, wages, unit labour cost, inflation, education of workforce, openness of the economy, road and railway density, i.e., the quality or development of infrastructure, level of corruption in particular countries and membership of the Economic and Monetary Union.
Keywords: FDI inflow, GDP, labour productivity, openness of economy, Visegrad Group;
JEL Classification: F21, O16, E24
Rational Consumer in the Context of Environmental Protection
Page 1081, Issue 10 - Volume 68/2020
In recent decades, there is an increase in new environmental problems in the world, which gradually grow from the local to the global level, and their short- -term consequences are gradually becoming long-term complex threats to the environment and thus the quality of life of current and especially future genera-tions. The main goal of the article was to review the behavior and attitudes of environmentally responsible consumers on the Slovak market and analyze the individual components of consumption and waste policy within the regions in the Slovak Republic in the context of environmental protection. Based on the cluster analysis and decision trees, we concluded that Slovak consumers rarely include eco-products in their consumption, mainly due to the high price or poor availability of these products. Through a cluster analysis, we analyzed the consumption and specificities of individual Slovak regions, while the recommendation is to create special different strategies focused on the regions of the Slovak Republic, based on waste reduction or the creation of waste recovery plants, which can create a favorable development in the circular economy of the Slovak Republic, and thus reduce the negative aspects of consumption affecting the environment and quality of life in the Slovak Republic.
Keywords: environment, eco-product, marketing, sustainability, sustainable consumption;
JEL Classification: M31, Q56, Q57
Sectoral Tourism Concentration in the Context of the Regional Policy
Page 1105, Issue 10 - Volume 68/2020
The main goal of the article is to evaluate the importance of regional competitiveness of tourism as a factor of regional growth. The starting point is to examine the operation of cluster tourism organizations in the identified natural clusters of tourism. By calculating the location quotient, we obtain an overview of the concentration of the tourism sector in the Slovak regions and, by applying shift-share analysis, we explain the impact of regional competitiveness in tourism on regional growth and profiling of regional specialization in tourism. The existing cluster tourism organizations do not copy the sectoral tourism concentration in the regions. Only three tourist regions where cluster organizations operate are characterized by regional competitiveness in the context of the profiling of tourism specialization. The justification for the questionable action of cluster tourism organizations and their public funding is a challenge for the formulation of a cluster and regional tourism policy.
Keywords: tourism clusters, clustering, location quotient, shift-share analysis, tourist regions of Slovakia;
JEL Classification: L83, O18
Qualitative Changes in China’s Foreign Trade in the Era of “New Normal”
Page 1126, Issue 10 - Volume 68/2020
Since the second decade of the 21st century, the Chinese economy has reached a qualitatively higher stage of development. In literature, this development stage is referred to as the “new normal” and is characterized by the balancing of disproportions in the Chinese economy. The present paper deals with the qualitative changes in Chinese foreign trade from the end of the global financial crisis to the present “new normal” era. The main aim of the paper is to examine the qualitative changes in the commodity structure of China’s exports and imports during the “new normal” in the second decade of the 21st century. We conclude that during this period, the Chinese economy was transformed into an economy with a high GDP share of innovative secondary and tertiary sectors with a change in the commodity structure of foreign trade in favor of high value-added products. We conclude that China’s position in the world economy is changing from a “world factory” to an innovative economy.
Keywords: China, foreign trade, new normal, old normal growth;
JEL Classification: F01, F14, F19