Issue 10 - Volume 65/2017
Detecting Business Cycles and Concordance of the Demand-based Classified Production of the Visegrad Countries – Regime Switching Approach
Page 899, Issue 10 - Volume 65/2017
The aim of this paper is to detect business cycles of the Visegrad countries using Markov-switching approach and to examine their synchronicity with the Euro Area aggregate as one of the inevitable conditions for optimal common monetary policy implementation. Unlike previous studies, we provide a further analysis by the use of disaggregated data in order to achieve a detailed look at the co-movement of the production and find the highest level of the synchronization within the capital and intermediate goods sector. On the contrary, non- -durable consumer goods production can be identified as a potential demand-based source of the asymmetric shocks due to the lowest rate of concordance. The results on the aggregated level complemented with the Hodrick-Prescott filtered data suggest a medium-to-high level of synchronization, although its increase in time cannot be confirmed for all Visegrad countries.
Keywords: Markov-switching models, Visegrad countries, synchronization, EMU, industrial production
JEL classification: C24, E32, F44, F45
On the Regional Convergence of Income at District Level in Slovakia
Page 918, Issue 10 - Volume 65/2017
The aim of this paper is to investigate regional convergence of income at district level in Slovakia, and to answer the question of whether Slovak districts converge or diverge over time, and across different sectors of the Slovak economy. Our analyses are based on monthly income data on median wages and old-age pensions at district territorial level (LAU 1), and two types of convergence are assessed: convergence towards national median income and convergence towards regional (NUTS 3 regions) median income. Using the Markov chains on the spatially lagged bimonthly district medians we find that the highest degree of wages convergence is found in the districts of Banská Bystrica, Žilina and Nitra Regions; and the highest degree of old-age pensions convergence is found in the districts of Košice and Banská Bystrica Regions. The given trends are influenced by the wages development in different economic activity sectors in these regions.
Keywords: regional convergence, income polarization, Markov chains, Slovakia
JEL Classification: I31, I32, D31, R12
The Complex Typology of the Relationship between GDP and Its Sources
Page 935, Issue 10 - Volume 65/2017
The article describes a complex typology of relations between GDP and its sources: Total factor productivity (TFP) and Total Input Factor (TIF). We analyse how possible changes in TFP and TIF affect GDP development. We give each situation a specific name that clearly explains it. Based on the analysis, the so-called dynamic parameters of intensity and extensity are introduced. The parameters quantify the share of the change in intensive and extensive factors in GDP change. The article further compares our typology with previous ones and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the chosen parameters.
Keywords: GDP, economic development, total input factor, total factor productivity, dynamic parameters of intensity and extensity, economic growth
JEL Classification: O11, O33, O41
Delaying Payments in the European Union: An Empirical Dynamic Panel Data Analysis
Page 952, Issue 10 - Volume 65/2017
We analyse delaying payments of accounts receivable by combining macro-economic shocks with firm characteristics controls. We use microeconomic dataset on financial statements of selected firms in European Union member states from AMADEUS for the period 2005 – 2014, and employ the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework to analyse the dynamic models. The empirical results show positive impact of the financial crisis on delaying payments. The two-step System GMM estimator obtain significance positive estimates of the coefficient of lagged late payment. Also, we identify significance positive relationship between late payment and firm performance measures of current ratio and gearing ratio, but negative relationship between late payment and firm turnover. The results suggest firms that delay in payments might have the tendency to delay in future payments.
Keywords: delaying payments, late payment, accounts receivable, accounts payable, financial crisis, credit collection, credit period, macroeconomic shocks
JEL Classification: M21
How to Anticipate Recession via Transport Indices
Page 972, Issue 10 - Volume 65/2017
This article focuses on transport industry development as a leading economic indicator. We investigate the dynamics of growth in the Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, capturing the US transport industry, and apply a system of logistic models of population growth and competition to transport industry indices. We show that the constructed structure identifies the signs of a US economic downturn/recession well in advance.
Keywords: Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, logistic growth, stochastic dynamics, economic growth
JEL Classification: C43, C62, L91, O47