Journal of Economics - Obsahy ročníkov

This paper examines predictive power of the confidence indicators for developments in industrial output, producer prices and employment in the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, and Poland (V4 countries). The Granger Causality tests are used for establishing potential causation between the confidence indicators and real economy data. The best OLS models with autoregressive terms complemented by confidence indicators are selected and their predictive accuracy is tested against the ARMA benchmarks with the Diebold-Mariano test. All OLS models performed better than the naïve ones .We conclude that the actual CI variables seem to reflect future patterns of economic development in next 1 – 2 months, and not just opinions by economic agents based on current or past economic trajectories. Keywords: forecasting, confidence indicators, ARMA models JEL Classification: E37, C53

We investigate the short-term dynamics of the Polish economy by means of a small-scale DSGE model with stochastic menu costs. We compare macroeconomic evidence of price rigidity in a model with the state-dependent Phillips curve to a benchmark model with a conventional time-dependent price stickiness. With a moderate 2.3% upper boundary on menu costs the estimated state-dependent pricing model for Poland indicates a median duration of prices about 14 months, whereas the same measure of price stickiness in the time-dependent pricing model is 3 months shorter. The result from the state-dependent pricing model estimated from macro data is closer to, both, micro-price evidence, and surveys on frequency of price changes in Poland. The difference is explained by a selection effect being present in the model with state-dependent price stickiness, only. It yields more intense and impact price adjustment after a monetary policy shock. Keywords: state-dependent price stickiness, Bayesian estimation, menu costs, Phillips curve, New-Keynesian DSGE JEL Classification: C51, E31, E32, E52

Article covers the fundamental social and economic tasks in the area of the insurance market determinants. Insurance market analyses were made by using the gross written premiums as endogenous variable. We can say that we confirm the impact of economic growth on the insurance market. In the area of demographic determinants, we clearly demonstrate that the change in the number of employed people in services significantly affects the insurance market. Institutional determinants and their impact were confirmed in determinant gross national expenditure. Keywords: economic determinants, demographic determinants, institutional determinants, insurance market JEL Classification: C44, C5, G22 E02

The problem of quantifying public goods is one of the most complex problems related to public choice theory. We argue that the public goods constitute an isomorphic, socio-economic system which is not a “black box”. The central goal of the article is to develop a universal methodology for measuring the quantity and quality of public goods, and the efficiency of their provision in different sectors of the economy. The authors have applied the developed methodology to a study of the process of public goods provision in the Polish education sector. The empirical research bears out the theory that the supply of public goods in the education sector is determined by the structure of the local budgetary funds used for that purpose, and not only by the total amount of public spending. Keywords: public goods; education sector; taxonomic analysis JEL Classification: H41, I25, I28, I29

Establishing a company requires not only a viable opportunity, but also many other factors in the business environment, including the ability to overcome administrative barriers in regulatory and administrative systems, which is particularly important. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to analyse and compare the administrative burdens when establishing a company in EU countries. To assess the actual differences and similarities in administrative burdens in the process of establishing a company, countries were grouped according to four indicators using a cluster analysis. To get insights into changes in a particular country and compare it with other EU countries in terms of administrative burdens for starting a company, data from 2004, 2007, and 2016 were used. The findings show that, despite intense pressure and extensive measures implemented in the EU to reduce administrative burdens, the differences among EU member countries are still remarkable and the relative performance of some countries worsens despite absolute lessening of burdens on the national level. Keywords: administrative burdens, company establishment, EU countries, cluster analysis, Doing Business data JEL Classification: L26, M13