Issue 1 - Volume 60/2012
Business Cycle Synchronisation between the V4 Countries and the Euro Area in 1996 – 2010
Page 3, Issue 1 - Volume 60/2012
Business cycle synchronisation between the V4 countries and the euro area is important in regard to the costs of the common monetary policy. This paper ad-dresses the issue of business cycle synchronisation by directly calculating cross correlations, by calculating cross correlations from primary impulses, and finally by calculating output gap component correlations from common and country-specific shocks. In regard to the output gap, the results of all three methods are approximately the same: before 2001, the business cycles of the V4 countries were not synchronised with the euro area (low or negative correlations); between 2001 and 2007, the correlations turned positive as the V4 countries joined the EU and trade between the V4 countries and the euro area in-creased; and during the economic crisis of 2008 – 2009, synchronisation in-creased still further.
Keywords: optimum currency area, business cycle, autoregressive model, SVAR
JEL Classification: E32, F02
Flexible Fourier Stationary Test in Purchasing Power Parity for Central and Eastern European Countries
Page 19, Issue 1 - Volume 60/2012
This study applies stationary test with a Fourier function proposed by Becker, Enders and Lee (2006) to test the validity of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) to assess the non-stationary properties of the real exchange rate for seven Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We find that our approximation has higher power to detect U-shaped breaks and smooth breaks than linear method if the true data generating process of exchange rate is in fact a stationary non-liner process. We examine the validity of PPP from the non-linear point of view and provide robust evidence clearly indicate that PPP holds true for two countries, namely Bulgaria and Romania. Our findings point out their exchange rate adjustment is mean reversion towards PPP equilibrium values in a non-linear way.
Keywords: Fourier stationary test, structural change, trend breaks, purchasing power parity
JEL Classification: C22, F31
How Important Is the Adverse Feedback Loop for the Banking Sector?
Page 32, Issue 1 - Volume 60/2012
Current regulatory framework for EU banks can have potential procyclical effects. Under certain conditions, procyclical behaviour of the banking sector can lead to an adverse feedback loop whereby banks, in response to an eco-nomic downswing, engage in deleveraging and reduce their lending to the economy in order to maintain the required capital adequacy ratio. This then further negatively affects economic output and impacts back on banks in the form of, for example, increased loan losses. This effect was simulated on the example of the banking sector of a selected EU country, namely the Czech Re-public. The simulation results point out that under certain assumptions the feedback loop may play an important role.
Keywords: procyclicality; feedback loop; bank regulation; deleveraging
JEL Classification: G21, E44, E47
Milk Dispensers in Slovakia: What is behind the Recent Boom?
Page 50, Issue 1 - Volume 60/2012
We provide a possible explanation for the sudden appearance of milk dispensers throughout Slovakia between 2009 and 2010. We identify three main factors: (i) higher profits earned by selling raw milk through dispensers relative to those earned through milk processing plants, (ii) very short pay-back period of dispensers, and (iii) high cumulative discounted profits generated from dispensers after they pay back. Nonetheless, we do not expect that new milk dispensers will show up in the future; on the contrary, we expect their number will decrease. It is because the consumers demand for raw milk has been decreasing significantly recently, suggesting that the vending machines were only a con-sumer fad. As a result, the farms that pioneered the operation of milk dispensers (especially in larger cities) are now the ones that may have benefited most from the subsidy.
Keywords: milk dispensers, Slovakia, dairy crisis, pay-back period, profits, subsidy
JEL Classification: Q13, Q14
The ICT Sector Evolution in an Industrial Region of Slovakia
Page 65, Issue 1 - Volume 60/2012
The information and communication industry (ICT) has become more significant in the regional economic structure in the last two decades, having a notable impact on other industries. Although young in age, the number of firms or employees in the industry is considerable. Bathelt, Malmberg and Maskell (2004) and Trippl et al. (2009) have highlighted two different knowledge interactions within the ICT sector-local (i.e. local buzz) and trans-local (i.e. global pipe-lines). Furthermore, this knowledge interaction pattern can be different according to the size, economic structure and history of the cities/regions under consideration. The article is based on empirical research, focusing on the ICT sector knowledge interactions in the region of Eastern Slovakia. It highlights the pre-existing industry related basis of ICT, the importance of local and trans-local interactions, its social capital level as well as clustering potential.
Keywords: evolutionary economics, knowledge links, old industrial region, lock in, ICT sector
JEL Classification: R11, L86
Variability of Employees’ Behaviour during Disaffection
Page 83, Issue 1 - Volume 60/2012
The aim of the article is modelling of impacts of employee turnover on efficiency of organisations. Variability of employees´ behaviour during disaffection was modelled based upon identification of factors affecting employee turnover revealed by deduction method and verified by quantitative survey. Formulation of problematic phenomenon and its verification leads to formulation of critical variables in order to lower disaffection and its costs in organisations. Different responses to impulses determine the level of dependence between the primary impulse (factors influencing employee turnover) and a reaction which is further elaborated according to the significance for the organisation. Differences in behaviours of employees in small national companies and large multinationals and their reactions to impulses are also described. The questionnaires were focused on revealing internal organisational factors leading to turnover. Respondents were part of a survey only if they left their previous job willingly. Thus, results can help to predict internal organisation causes leading to employee turnover and employee behaviour during disaffection.
Keywords: efficiency, behaviour, human resources, disaffection, turnover, organisation, management
JEL Classification: J63